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An increase in HBM production capacity may help stabilize the upward trend of DRAM prices
2024-05-20

Due to the time needed for the recovery of demand for PCs and smartphones, the price increase of DRAM used for temporary data storage on smartphones, PCs, and data center servers has come to a halt. In April 2024, the wholesale price of the indicator product DDR4 8Gb (bulk trading price) was around $1.95 per unit, while the price of smaller 4Gb products was around $1.50 per unit. The prices remained unchanged from the previous month (March 2024) and remained unchanged for the second consecutive month. As of February 2024, DRAM prices have shown an upward trend for four consecutive months. The wholesale price of DRAM is determined monthly or quarterly between storage vendors and customers.


According to reports, about 50% of DRAM demand comes from PCs and servers, and about 35% comes from smartphones. According to research firm Omdia analyst Akira Nanagawa, "the recovery of consumer demand, which accounts for about 80% of PC and smartphone demand, still needs time.".


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The report points out that the demand for HBM necessary for generative AI is rapidly increasing, and the market expects the mass production trend of HBM to drive up DRAM prices in the future. The electronic product company pointed out that "some large factories have accepted the price increase requests from storage manufacturers.". A certain PC manufacturer stated that the wholesale price of DRAM from April to June will increase by 5-10% compared to January to March.


An official from an electronic product company pointed out that "the facilities required to produce HBM are about three times larger than those required to produce regular DRAM. If the production of HBM increases, the production of other DRAM will decrease, thereby driving up prices.". In addition, Akira Nankawa pointed out that "the price of HBM is 5-6 times that of other DRAMs"; The electronic product company stated that "the supply cannot keep up with demand, and the pricing power at this stage is in the hands of storage factories.".


In order to meet the demand, Samsung and SK Hynix have switched over 20% of their DRAM production lines to producing HBM. A senior SK executive told institutional investors, "Based on the production capacity as of the end of this year, all of our production capacity for next year has been reserved.". A senior investor relations executive at Samsung also stated that HBM's output has been sold out.


Both companies are optimistic about the price outlook of traditional DRAM. Samsung executives said, "I don't think DRAM quotes will decline this year.".


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